A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
